Climate change policy, or the lack of it, has been influential in the demise of several federal political leaders since John Howard lost the 2007 election (and his seat in Parliament). Malcolm Turnbull lost his leadership of the opposition in 2009 and his prime ministership in 2018 because he proposed policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but enough of his Liberal colleagues did not support that.
Three separate prediction methods indicate that the Liberal National Coalition will lose government in the 2019 federal election.
The level of belief in imminent global warming amongst Australian adults is now back to the level of 2007, when Labor last won government from the coalition. Importantly, the level of belief amongst people aged 65+, the core constituency of the coalition, has recently lifted to the same level as in 2007.
This is documented in my recent article, along with an assessment of the top issues in voters minds.
Of course, it is still up to Labor to propose a credible set of policies which are attractive to voters.